Author: colinizer

Google could win at least the Mobile Consumer Space

colinizer Android, Apple, Gadgets, Gaming, Google, Microsoft, Social Networking, Web Service, Xbox

If you look at Microsoft’s Project Natal, you know that Microsoft is trying to go after the rest of the family in the gaming space.  Once those people become comfortable playing games like raggedy dolls 😉 they’ll be comfortable using whatever entertainment or service Microsoft provides on the box.

It goes without saying that Microsoft is big in business and will likely continue to be but that focus may continue to be their undoing in other market segments – just look at Windows Mobile.  Take the consumer who is buying their first or next mobile device and just moving into social networking or electronic communications or those that currently have no brand loyalty.  Here, Google could gradually and quietly take over from Symbian, Apple and Microsoft.

Google Wave + Google Search + other Google applications on an Android-based phone, a mini running Android or even on any other low-cost device with a browser, could be a winning formula and all that any social networking consumer needs.

While Microsoft will dominate business, gaming and home entertainment, Google may well end up dominating most of the mobile consumer space (with a little work on the UI – and imagine if Google and Adobe got together…).

Microsoft needs to come out with a Windows Mobile device and fast – like this year.  It needs to be a .NET-based OS and have a flourishing and up-front application/music market place.  That means dismissing their hardware partners and bring out a cheap Zune phone (while extending Game Studio Express to be App Studio Express) – it’s painful to other but it’s the only real way for Microsoft not to lose this space altogether, and not to Apple, but to Google.

Microsoft’s Azure xRM Play is Important

colinizer Internet-based Service, Microsoft, Platform As A Service, Sheep, Software As A Service

Read this through and you’ll see how Microsoft could be enabling a LOB platform in the cloud for ISVs.  Beware however, that this could also be a research asset for Microsoft to bolster it’s own CRM and other offerings and potentially take out, devalue or acquire (for a lucky few) a few LOB app ISVs like it is or is not (depending on your point of view) with application hosting partners.

Microsoft’s Cunning Plan to Get IE on Windows 7 in Europe – Part 2

colinizer IE 8, Microsoft, Sheep

So yesterday I explained how Microsoft’s plan to effectively keep IE on Windows 7 by removing it from copies sold in Europe was really is a great plan for Microsoft (i.e. not much change) and not so good for enthusiasts.

Today Mary Jo Foley reports as follows:

EC regulators said in a statement that they found a lot to like in Microsoft’s plan to strip IE out of Windows 7 and subsequently allow PC makers to add back in Microsoft’s or a variety of third-party browsers. But they were unhappy with the way Microsoft was removing choice for customers who bought Windows 7 at retail, by providing them with no browser at all. The EC regulators added that they had not been considering requiring Microsoft to remove IE from Windows 7 as one of the potential remedies in the case.

That can’t have it both ways.  First it’s claims of Microsoft’s browser ‘in your face’ in an anti-trust way, and now it’s concern of no choice.  From Mary’s summary the EU regulators sounds like a flustered parent that scolds a child about not doing a chore, only to find that the child has invented some other way to achieve the same thing, but the parent has to save face and so tells them off for not doing it the way they wanted it to be done, even if the child’s way is sufficiently acceptable or better than the standards originally expected.  Ahhh -  the petulant genius of Microsoft.

Mary further reports that Opera officials said:

“We note with intereste that Microsoft now seems capable of separating IE from Windows [Total historical dig there]. However, we do not believe that Microsoft’s move will restore competition for desktop browsers. Most users get their operating systems from the OEM channel and Microsoft will recommend that OEMs pre-install IE8. As such, users are unlikely to be given a genuine choice of browsers. [Which is exactly what I said]

“We believe that the idea of a ‘ballot screen’ is better [Do doubt – everyone likes free advertising]: when going online, users will be asked which browser(s) they prefer to use. The browser(s) of choice will the painlessly be installed and ready for use.”

Do they sound like sore winners? It sounds like Microsoft is likely doing what is required legally, but not want Opera officials want.  Could be too bad.

Microsoft’s people must be ROTFLTAO with arrogant back-patting glee 🙂 – they deserve to.

Microsoft’s Cunning Plan To Get IE On Windows 7 in Europe

colinizer IE 8, Microsoft, Sheep

It has apparently been revealed that Microsoft will not (directly) include IE with Windows 7 RTM in Europe.

This is clearly, on the surface at least, a plan to avoid litigation with EU authorities at the 11th hour towards Windows 7’s release.

This is different from making both Vista (inc. Media Player) and Vista N (no Media Player) available.  There will not be a version of Windows 7 with IE include available in Europe.

To be technically clear, Windows 7 will likely still have the underlying APIs available (I’m thinking WinInet, .NET framework, etc) to do Web interaction, but just no general-purpose web browser application for end users.  You can bet it will still do Windows/Microsoft updates for example and all other applications that talk to the Internet will still work (though any plain web-based help could have difficulties).  I bet the ActiveX IE web control is still in there. Will IE 8 be an optional install appearing in Windows Update perhaps? 😉

The real benefit/plan for Microsoft:

This is likely the best thing Microsoft could have done… for Microsoft (not necessarily the consumer and especially not the enthusiast), instead of for example confusing the poor user with a choice on power-up of one or more competing browsers to download (or have many install packages already bundled) and then install.

This way Microsoft can at least rely on a user’s expectation (from previous versions) that Windows should come with Internet Explorer.

In fact who are they fooling really – well the EU authorities most likely – because this critical initial choice (for the majority of innocent new computer buyers) now goes from the consumers to the computer OEMs if Microsoft is provided them with kits to bundle IE8.  Which major OEM is going to risk not putting at least Internet Explorer on their machines?  Also, if the OEM does it, there’s no browser choice window but there can be a default!  Which major OEM is not going to make Internet Explorer the default?

The likely end result – new machines in Europe go on sale with IE 8 bundled by the OEM as likely as the default browser.  Clever, isn’t it!

The competition moves from the consumer to the OEM and we know Microsoft’s… skills there.

The consumer really inconvenienced by this is the European user that installs a fresh copy of Windows 7 themselves.  However, a person towards the enthusiast end of the expertise scale will have no problem keep a copy of IE 8 handy.  I wonder what happens if you do an upgrade from Windows Vista to Windows 7?

Netbooks Will Be Huge… in 2010

colinizer Netbook, Retail, Windows 7

I’ve been surprised when attending a number of local developer community events that there haven’t been more laptops in use by attendees.  Perhaps the lack of free Wi-Fi was a factor.  One hears of various other events where many attendees have them and they are ‘Tweeting’ away.

However, I’m aware that university students have been bringing notebooks/laptops into classes for some time and increasingly so.

Separately, the netbook form-factor has become more popular lately.  Of course there was the UMPC, but it seems that the lack of a keyboard, or a regular one at least, along with the price-point over $1000 would easily put off purchasers.

Netbook (currently without a Microsoft update to pass a spell-check) computers are coming in around the $300 to $500 mark and now typically include an Intel N270 processor, 512MB to 1GB of RAM (2G is creeping in), a 8GB to 64GB SSD or small HDD with 100s of GB and an 8.9” to 10.1” screen.  Acer, Dell, LG & HP are some of the major brands selling them, typically under a ‘Mini’ moniker.

The major choice with a netbook is whether you go with a Ubuntu or Windows XP.  Yes, XP, not Vista.  Vista can be just too ‘fat’ (in the popular editions) to work well or at all (especially with smaller SSD drives), even though the hardware generally includes a GMA 950 graphics chipset for Aero Glass.  Search the web (including YouTube for videos) and you’ll see many current netbook owners successfully loading on the Windows 7 Beta or RC.  It has been reported by many that Microsoft is touting Windows 7’s netbook-friendliness.  It was also recently reported that Microsoft will sell discounted copies of Windows 7 Starter and Home Premium (like it did with specific XP editions) to OEMs if hardware falls within a new maximum specification.

Let’s quickly look at the likely usage profile for a netbook user, considering it’s capabilities.  The netbook user will IM, Tweet, blog, use Social networking web sites and software, do other web browsing, and perhaps use Office or more basic software.  Perhaps they’ll even play the odd low-spec casual or arcade game.  Much of this activity requires Wi-Fi availability.  Does this not describe typical student computer activity? Imagine students following slides or taking notes in lectures and doing web-based social activities in cafes, bars and other public places.  Don’t most campuses now have Wi-Fi?  Doesn’t the netbook represent a price drop of up to 50% compared to a laptop which is way over spec and form-factor for these activities?

So are there limitations for other activities that prevent use by students?  Well the keyboards can be a little cramped.  It’s usually necessary to get a 10”+ screen to get a usable keyboard layout with keys at 92% of regular size.  They don’t come with optical drives.  Depending on hard disk space, movies and other material can come along on disc and aren’t really needed for most of the activities above.  Also, things like Live Mesh and other services mean you don’t necessarily need everything loaded all the time.  Yes, I know students sit in lectures and watch movies with headphones on instead of listening, but just a handful.  The resolution is limited – often 1024×576 – which is enough for DVD movies but not 720P without down-scaling (which requires CPU or GPU power along with decoding).  However, it’s big enough for most of the core activities, and higher resolutions are now appearing for 10”+ screens.

OK, so the netbook form-factor is looking like a viable and student-price-friendly computer for on-the-go and learning locations.  Huge numbers of students all around the world are currently waiting for acceptance letters.  There are two big snags:

1.  As mentioned above, there are things that make the netbook computer unsuitable as a main machine for various groups of users.  This will come down however, to what kind of student or person you are.  If you like movies, software development, graphics stuff, playing WoW, CPU/GPU-intensive stuff and generally ‘vegging’ in front of your computer, you may have a budget decision.  If you do, then depending on if you already have a computer and whether you will be living at home or in a dorm, this may or may not be an issue.

If you live at home, commute daily to university and have a desktop computer then a netbook computer is the ideal mobile compliment.  If you have a notebook then you may not want to lug it every day (especially if its big), so a netbook may still be appropriate.

If you will live in dorms (likely the majority) then you will not have far to lug your notebook computer.  If you are making a decision for attending this year, it could be between a single mid-sized laptop or a more power laptop/desktop plus a mini – though clearly the latter is more expensive.  Depending on how you make your trip from home to the dorms each season, a desktop + mini may be an option that is the same price as a do-all mid-sized notebook computer.

Services like Live Mesh and others will no-doubt facilitate the multi-computer owner lifestyle.

I’ve mostly been talking about university students.  High-school students almost all live nearby their school or take a bus, so a netbook computer is a great compliment to whatever type of computer they have at home and may be an adequate single or even first computer.  This is another thing (like mobile phones) that school administrators will have to figure out how to deal with.  It’s a pity that the majority of education authorities are generally so behind on leveraging computer use that they will not be able to make use of the additional learning potential from these devices and are likely going to spend their time on rules to prevent the playing of games or even use of such devices at all.

2. Windows 7 is expected to RTM within a few months and Microsoft has confirmed retail availability for the end of the year.  This has been widely translated to an October release.  Most students wouldn’t want to invest in an XP machine for four years this August or September (unless they know it can be upgraded and how to do that without extra money).  People I’ve met with retail experience tell me that back-to-school is bigger than December.  As a netbook OEM I’d want Windows 7 by July to be selling in August/September.  Microsoft has been under-promising (though most watchers didn’t buy it) and over-delivering (if you believe the under-promising) lately, and many Windows 7 RC reviewers believe the product is basically ready to go.  It is possible that Windows 7 will come out early.  Two months from RC to RTM – possible but very tight.  Microsoft is apparently going to provide a free-upgrade to Windows 7 offer in July which helps somewhat.

Computer retailers are increasing carrying less desktop stock and more mobile stock.  There are a number of netbook computers on display, though they are largely the same small number of models in a variety of colours – so these things have some personalisation about them too which makes them more attractive to soome.  It’s likely that the current economy status is keeping their stock levels down too.  Come Aug/Sep this stock will grow, and retailers are deciding in the next two months which products they will carry.  Retailers, netbook/notebook OEMs and Microsoft are likely looking at this and wishing they could make Windows 7 happen as soon as possible.  Dell for example, is touting the Latitude 2100 for students.  This may be a shot in the wilderness until the Windows 7 free-upgrade is available, and would need to apply to XP purchases too if Microsoft expects any significant number of people to buy a netbook including XP with the hopes of moving to Windows 7.

In all likelihood, netbook sales will start taking hold this december and next year, when battery life, resolution, processing power and SSD storage price point have all improved.  I expect 2010 to be the real ramp-up for netbooks as standalone and first computers for some and complimentary computers for others using an increasing number of synchronisation services.  I also imagine that we’ll start seeing more computers, in netbook format, being brought to high schools or even provided by a small number of forward-thinking schools. 

Now Twittering…

colinizer Announcements, Sheep, Social Networking, Twitter

I’ve taken the plunge into Twitter.

Within my first couple of weeks of tweeting Twitter has taken away the setting that allows someone to see @replies from the people he/she follows to people that he/she does not follow – I believe this is something which will slow down the discovery of new connections.  Twitter’s announcement seems to suggest that they think they know what’s best, but I imagine it is also a cost-control tactic to slow down the growth of one-to-many SMS transmissions they have to pay for.

I’ve also started a small project to create a new WPF-based twitter client, because I like stuff to work well in a certain context and the existing stuff just didn’t do it – perhaps more on this later.

Feel to follow me at http://twitter.com/colinizer.