Mix 08 Keynote With Scott Guthrie – Part 2

Silveright

Currently 1.5+ millions download installations of Silverlight 1.0 per day

Silverlight 2 Beta 1 available for download

Silverlight 2 stuff

1 Improving video experience

Adaptive streaming (to computer capabilities and bandwidth) – using appropriate bitrate – at initial video start and continuously (without buffering).

Plugable adaptive streaming algorithm.

2 TCO

HD Video is expensive – streaming and progressive download.

Windows Media Services 2008 released with Windows Server 2008.

Bit-rate throttling (with IIS 7.0/W2K8 for progressive download) – initial burst and then controlled stay-ahead (by x seconds) of playback throttling

Web Playlist.

3 Monetisation

VS 2008 project for silverlight advertising template – roll-down banner to playing video with tracking.

Demo of video.show for hosting video.

AdManager for tracking stats including interactions.

Demo of ad+video with skip control on web play list.

Overlay ads using Expression Media Encoder Two using XAML – add markers for ads (‘burned in’ or dynamic).

SDK for integration with Doubleclick Instream advertising.  Demo on NBA site with handling of user events like pause, mute, etc.

Mix 08 Keynote with Scott Guthrie – Part 1

Standards-based web development

Just launched:

.NET 3.5 (includes Linq), Visual Studio 2008, IIS 7 (very componentised), Windows Server 2008

Coming in 2008:

New APS.NET MVC, ASP.NET AJAX update, New ASP.NET Data Dynamic.  Information about this has been on Scott’s blog for a while.

IE8 – first public preview (mostly about standards)

1 CSS 2.1 support

2 CSS Certification – 702 test cases contributed by MS to W3C group because spec can have some ambiguous interpretations

3 Performance – modern sites are script-heavy – ie8 much closer to other browsers

4 Start of HTML 5 support – supporting back button in AJAX, (first demo applause), disconnection notification, local offline storage (applause)

5 Developer Tools – Debug developer tools in IE8 – Break points, watches, object model and applicable style tree syncing from selection (applause)

6 Activities – integrating experiences – select browser text and see popup-menu of activities (maps, purchase, ebay, etc.) declared through xml in minutes – OpenService Specification (through Creative Commons)

7 WebSlices – Subscribe to information related to pieces selected on a page (then carried in browser UI across any site), declared through WebSlice Specification (again Creative Commons).

8 Beta 1 available to developers microsoft.com/ie/ie8

Silverlight 1.1/2.0

Hello again!

Tomorrow is supposedly a big day for Silverlight 2.0 at Microsoft Mix conference.

For those that don’t know.  Silverlight 1.1 and 2.0 are the same thing.

Silverlight 1.0 (a browser plug-in) was released last year – it uses a subset of Windows Presentation Foundation in the XAML format and can be scripted with JavaScript.  You can do lovely animated vector graphics, images and streamed video.  It is cross-browser and cross-platfrom.

Silverlight 2.0 has been in alpha for a long time and it has been very quiet except for a few recent posts by Scott Guthrie recently (the man in charge of it at Microsoft).  It has a mini subset of .net 3.5 in it, plus some other classes for talking to the browser.  There’s also control/layout support for complex controls.  It also should be cross-browser and cross-platform – you can use your Windows dev machine to remote debug silverlight running in Safari on a Mac!  It may also include the Dynamic Runtime (DLR) – think immediately compiled and run code – like a command prompt, but much cooler.  See the full details.

Silverlight 1.0 is like a web presentation competitor to Flash.  2.0 is like a web-application development platform.  The implications of bring the whole .NET development community to bear (without having to worry about HTML or Javascript anymore!) is HUGE!.

The rumour would be that Beta 1 will be released at Mix, and a Beta 2 has been talked about.

The big 3 questions for me are:

  • When will it RTM?
  • When will the mobile version (demo’d as WPF/E 2 years ago!)
  • When will video capture be put in (and on mobile!)?

Oh… and when will Microsoft manage to catch up with its development tools for all these new technologies.

Check out the mix website for the live keynote at 09:30 PT tomorrow (March 5 2008).

Microsoft Popfly

Microsoft’s new free ecosystem in alpha is named Popfly.  The alpha service currently has a waiting list.

It provides for the creation and hosting of mashup content in a community (Popfly Space) using building ‘blocks’ in a non-developer-orientated UI.  Finished projects can be hosted (by the provided embed code or directly to sites that support the MetaWoblog API) on other communities (that support iframe) or as Vista Sidebar gadgets. 

So for example, at the basic level you can create and publish your own slide show or psuedo 3D photo sphere or Virtual Earth view (with photos geographically positioned) that pulls pictures from a Live Spaces or Flickr account.

Presentation can be done with Silverlight 1.0, AJAX, or DHTML (see my posts on this for more information on Silverlight).  It is a web-browser client-side technology (not for creating say ASP.NET server-side applications).

The Popfly Creator is an online tool for creating the single-page mashup applications, including the ASP.NET AJAX client library.  It graphically shows the blocks and how they are connected up.  There are javascript editing options (including intellisense!) for advanced users.

Users can create and share their own blocks, and there appears to be a possible monetization opportunity there too (see the FAQ).

There is also rudimentary cross-user anonymous application data persistance (e.g. for voting results).

The service is aimed primarily at non-professional developers to build things without code, but there’s also a plug-in for Visual Studio (all versions) called Popfly Explorer.

See the Popfly website and video for more information.

[Via: Robert Scoble]

Silverlight: oh yes it is; oh no it isn’t – a Flash competitor

There’s a lot of denial both from Microsoft and others about Silverlight being a Flash-competitor.

I’ve been watching the session videos from sessions.visitmix.com in the last few days. In one of the videos they show a survey that Microsoft commissioned that very specifically asked about future usage of Silverlight vs. Flash. The presenter made various comments about Flash TCO being much higher, etc.

I think it would very naive to think that Microsoft was not targeting upcoming designers and existing designers. The fact that Expression is pushed out now with XAML support (with a 2.0 version already in preview) ahead of XAML support in Visual Studio says a lot.

Make cash from your Silverlight work with ad revenue share

In the Scott Guthrie video interview by Robert Scoble for PodTech, Scott very specifically says that there will be an ad revenue share opportunity for those using Silverlight through the currently free (with limit) and in beta Silverlight Streaming service.

Those making compelling and original casual gaming experiences may find this a great way to go.

I wonder what kind of control will be offered on the kind of advertising offered.

Many Silverlight opportunities – a good problem to have?

Scott Guthrie mentioned is his recent video interview with Robert Scoble for PodTech, that having many Silverlight opportunities, is a good problem to have.

I’d like to briefly examine whether that’s really true with a few questions:
How many really differentiatable opportunities are there really?

  • Doing another YouTube but with Silverlight doesn’t seem like a viable opportunity
  • Perhaps doing casual gaming – which really requires original gaming to be exclusive to Silverlight for a while
  • There’s rich ebook or ecomic reading of course
  • And there’s widgets in general and the market that could be created for re-use in other sites
  • I wonder if Silverlight stuff will make it into Windows Sidebar gadgets
  • Perhaps Silverlight opportunities are more to do with spreading rather than original concepts or content

Are the ways to use the technology somewhat overwhelming?
With so many languages on offer, and many people still learning about WPF, there’s almost a mental breakdown with the excitement. It’s a technology without an application – without clear thinking it make be difficult to find a real value adding application, so perhaps it’s just easiest to go with something fun to begin with. I haven’t looked at the documentation yet, but I can tell you that some of the .NET 3.0 documentation had some really bad errors in it.

Is the technology available to even enable the opportunities?
In the interview Scott casually and repeatedly uses phrases like “we shipped”. Well actually Scott, you “announced” technologies, and you “delivered” alpha and beta bits, and you gave no timetable for for 1.1 – possibly because that would give away the launch timeframe for Visual Studio Orcas too. Even with go-live licenses, seriously stable and commercial ventures may struggle surface due to the fear on relying on Microsoft deliverables, especially up to a xmas season. So I wouldn’t call it a good problem, more of a frustrating one that makes it difficult to make business investment decisions around.

I’m saying that cool doesn’t necessarily equal good business opportunities, and even if it does, there’s an overwhelming scramble to pick a direction. Nevertheless, there are still cool things about the technology and my thoughts on the underlying Microsoft domination strategy (even if it’s a win-win for many).

Blinded by Silverlight – the real technology/strategy reveal at Mix07

The about page on the mix website stated:

Exciting new Web experiences with the still-secret “Technology X”

WPF/E and its new branding of Silverlight were announced before the conference, so this secret had to be something else. Silverlight 1.0 is what we already knew. Let’s not underestimate it though – it brings all the XAML/WPF whizzy stuff that is the Flash competitor in 1.0 – it allows a lot of Flash ActionScript type developers and other javascript fans to do cool stuff and consider Microsoft.

The technology in Silverlight 1.1 was in fact the secret (as Microsoft has confirmed) – a full .NET engine (with a subset of the 3.5 .NET framework) embedded allowing all the .NET languages (and dev tools) to run cross-platform in a browser. The dynamic language runtime part also enables 4 scriptable languages to work in there along with C# and VB.NET.

But this, I believe, is just the start of a potentially brilliant strategy for Microsoft, as I’ll now explain.

Bringing .NET (and scriptable .NET) to multiple browsers and multiple operating systems is a huge deal. It really does mean that all the investments that people have made in .NET, can be leveraged in many many ways. There’s a reason that 1.1 is 4.24MB compared to the 1.34MB for 1.0. That’s an army many times bigger than ActionScripters with Expression tools providing a way to use existing Designer talents with WPF/Silverlight. Finding ActionScripters for projects is VERY hard – you can more easily find people that can do VB.NET, C#, JavaScript, not to mention being able to use people that can do IronPython or IronRuby – that’s 6 times more languages that can be used!

Silverlight 1.1 is really the hosting of this stuff in a browser with the VC1/media decoding. So if Silverlight is thought of as a subset of .NET 3.5 in a browser that brings Microsoft technology and tools to many browser and platforms (that’s going from windows apps into cross-everything in a browser) – a bridge to other platforms if you will, what happens if you reverse that once you’ve bridged the platform/browser gap, i.e. just have a plain executable application host on a Mac, Linux, etc, even without re-inflating the framework? Now you can potentially develop on Windows in .NET to create full (rich and connected enough) applications on the Mac and Linux (once this runtime is ported to that). You can even do the development on a Mac in a text editor (including in a browser as demo’d).

Microsoft is all about selling copies of Windows (and Office). If you can’t keep Mac and Linux away, then the next best thing is to bring Windows onto Mac and Linux. However, you can’t sell a Windows licenses that way, but you can get people to use technology that easily hooks up to Windows Live or MSN services that you do get revenue from!!!

So the real technology/strategy that I see Microsoft following:

  • Phase 1 – win over Adobe/Flash developers with SilverLight 1.0, bring Microsoft technology to the Mac and make Microsoft look cool. Provide Expression tools to bring the designers across since often there’s a lot of graphics with a small amount of scripting, vs. the other way around.
  • Phase 2 – bridge the divide by bringing .NET development onto Mac and Linux platforms with an army of existing developers that smothers ActionScripters, enabling users to become Windows Live services users – you did notice that Microsoft is ‘opening up’ their Live service APIs right?
  • Phase 2.5 – All those people that like non-Microsoft languages that were stuck on the server (and often, not a Microsoft server) – get them to love Microsoft now that their favourite dynamic scriptable language can now be used to build _client_ applications on multiple platforms…
  • Phase 3 – once across the bridge (cross-browser leads to true cross-platform), expand the hosting to enable rich .NET installed application development on other platforms making Microsoft technology and Windows Live services an indispensible part of the Mac and Linux experience too!

It’s bold, trojan-esque and both developers and users will lap it up.

If this isn’t the strategy, then it should be!

Silverlight WAS the whole keynote practically, and there’s been coverage of very little else (except about DLR) out of Mix. Nothing about Xbox-Windows links for Xbox Live from Robbie Bach (just a snooze-athon discussion and some iffy demos). Nothing about Live ID CardSpace cards or opening up Live ID to web site publishers like Passport.

This technology is the sleeper slow-release hit of Mix07. They didn’t even officially say this was the secret Technology X listed on the about page.

If what I’ve said is Ray Ozzie’s undeclared strategy, then he is indeed doing a fantastic job (despite his apparent lack of blogging and public comments). If it wasn’t his strategy then either he should make it the strategy or let it just fall into place as I believe it will – either way he’ll look like a genius…

We are living in a Microsoft world again…

Be sure to check out my other mix07 coverage.

New Microsoft CLR/DLR celebrities are born in Jim Hugunin & John Lam

For those watching Channel 9 in the last year you’ll likely be familiar with Anders Hejlsberg, the C# language guru (as well as being the nicer than pie and clever as hell Danish import) who has been seen explaining LINQ and related language technologies.

At Mix07, Jim Hugunin will most likely be receiving lots of hugs from developers for his work on, and demonstration of, the Dynamic Language Runtime – extension to the core DLR to allow for C#, VB.NET, IronPython, IronRuby, JavaScript and VBx to all work as scripting languages calling each other and running on .NET. Keep up to date with the latest DLR announcement on his blog. I’ll just forget that he’s a Python guy ;).

His collague, John Lam (Ruby guy) has a Channel 9 video about this stuff.

The two of them did a great session a Mix07 which was recorded.